我是小丹尼，谈车说科技，今天聊聊电动车，但不是我来讲，而是电动车圈的剑桥学霸……Emma
This
is Danny, I talk about tech and cars. Today, our focus is on electric
cars, but I'm not the speaker, let's have a Cambridge graduate from the
EV circle... Emma.
我是一个特斯拉老车主、老韭菜。没人比我们这种老韭菜更了解电动汽车的槽点：价格高、有续航焦虑、还和我的手机一样，担心电池折损问题。一旦剁手，还不保值。
I‘ve been a loyal Tesla owner for a while, and I guess nobody knows the disadvantages of the EV more than owners like me. The EV is of high price but short battery life. And the battery itself depreciates as fast as that of my phone. It costs a lot to buy a car but has littel added value.
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既然问题那么多，为什么政府还要各种补贴，大力扶持电动汽车呢？真是因为钱多人傻吗？
There're so many problems of the EV, but why the government offers all kinds of subsidies to support the development of the EV? Is it really a stupid and money-wasting policy?
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我是DannyData的Emma, 今天开启耿直boy模式，看破也说破政府扶持电动车背后的隐藏逻辑！
I'm Emma from DannyData. Today I'll talk straight about the hidden logic behind government support for electric vehicles!
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每个国家在支持电动车时，都爱把“环保”挂嘴边。但恐怕只有挪威这种多金、又没本土汽车工业的国家，才能比较单纯地拥抱环保。
Every country likes to talk about "environmental protection" when it comes to supporting electric vehicles. But I'm afraid that only a country like Norway, which is rich enough but has no local auto industry, can embrace the environment more simply.
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对于中、美、德国这种工业大国来说，政府支持电动车的逻辑，才不会too young too simple。
For industrial powers like China, the US and Germany, the logic of government support for electric cars is not "too young too simple".
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这些政府大力扶持电动车，背后都有三大动机：经济风险大转移、产业追赶我最牛、利用能源666。
There are three main motives behind all of these government efforts to support electric vehicles: big shift in economic risk, fierce industry competition, and efficient energy use.
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先说第一点，经济风险转移。
Let's talk about shifting economic risk first.
评判一个国家的实力，通常看五个领域：政治、经济、科技、军事和文化。而经济实力，是一切的基础。
Five aspects are often involved when evaluating a country's strength. They are politics, economy, science and technology, military and culture. Among them, economic strength is the basis of everything.
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造成经济增长放缓的因素很多，其中一个重磅原因，就是 ?“可利用能源的体量”。
There are many factors that contribute to the slowdown in economic growth, and one that weighs heavily is the volume of available energy.
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重复一遍：可利用能源的体量。
Repeat: the volume of available energy.
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拿数据一看，就会发现：对于GDP，能源实在太重要了！
Take a look at the data and you'll see: energy is extremely important for GDP!
从这个模型能明显看出，可用能源体量和世界GDP的每年增长趋势保持一致。所以经济学家才会提出，GDP和可用能源，是成正比的。可用能源越多，GDP就越猛。
It is obvious from this model that the volume of available energy is consistent with the annual growth trend of world GDP. That's why economists propose that GDP and the available energy, are proportional. The more energy available, the more GDP will be generated.
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为什么像沙特、挪威这种没有工业的小国，能成为超级土豪国呢？正是因为人家家里有矿，能源多多。
Why is it that small countries like Saudi Arabia and Norway, having no industry, can be super-duper rich? It's because they have mines and lots of energy.
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在石油问题上，这个趋势更加明显。石油是最重要的能源之一。世界上98%的运输系统，都依赖石油。我们可以看到，石油和GDP的增减趋势，是非常同步的。可用石油体量，直接影响着GDP, 影响着世界经济。
In the case of oil, this trend is even more pronounced. Oil is one of the most important energy sources. 98% of the world's transportation system depends on oil. We can see that oil and GDP are increasing and decreasing in a very synchronized fashion. The volume of available oil has a direct impact on GDP and on the world economy.
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一旦石油供应出了问题，经济必然会受牵连。
When there's a huge change in the oil supply chain, the economy must be affected.
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所以新能源车，特别是电动车，最重要的贡献，不是环保，而是减少我们的交通和经济对石油的依赖。
Therefore, the most crucial contribution of electric cars is not environmental protection, but it helps us decrease the dependence of the world economy on?oil supply.
中国政府从2010年开始扶持新能源车的一大动机，就是想把鸡蛋多放几个篮子，降低石油黑天鹅事件对中国经济带来的冲击。
The motivation behind the Chinese government's support in EV since 2010 is to decrease the potential impact of the oil market on the Chinese economy. Put our eggs in different baskets.
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那你可能会问，新能源也不只有车呀，新能源车也不只有纯电车呀，为啥要重点扶持它呢？
Maybe you will ask, cars must not be the only sources that use new energy; there are many new energy cars besides electric cars. Why does the government focusing on supporting electric cars?
我们接着说第二点：产业追赶。
That brings us to our second point: industry trends.
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虽然我是性别女，对汽车行业还是有点懂的。汽车产业有两个规律：
As a female, I've investigated my time in the car industry. There are two main rules:
1）少数玩家负责造车，全球百姓负责消费。
1) only a few produce the?car, while everyone?else pays for it.
2）汽车产业对国家非常重要。因为汽车是唯一一个单价和销量都足够高的民用工业品，既能带动上下游的产业发展、还能拉高就业率和税收，提升国家科技水平和GDP含金量，是不是很牛？所以大国强国，都想在“汽车”领域争第一。
2) The car industry is very important to every country because it is the only industry that maintains a high price and a high demand national wide. It not only drives businesses from upstream and downstream but also can increase taxations and employment rate. Moreover, it can even bring quality of GDP and technology to the next level. Aren't electric cars fantastic? So all large strong countries want?to become world leaders in the car industry.
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政府在考虑扶植本国汽车产业时，思考的肯定不止是交通出行这么简单，而是拉动整个产业发展。
When the government supports electric cars, it considers the whole industry and ecosystem.
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说到这，也来聊下中国汽车与经济的发展史: 当我们驱逐了八国联军，再经历内战之后，经济和科技基础是相当薄弱的。
Speaking of which, let's talk about the history and transformation of Chinese economic and car industry. After?expelling?the Eight-Power Allied and going through the Civil War, the economic and technological foundation?of China?was pretty weak.
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1949年成立新中国，首先推出的交通商品不是汽车，而是自行车，这是没钱的尴尬。
When modern China founded in 1949, the first product of consumer transportation is not the car?but the bicycle.
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到了80年代开始进入“私家车”时代时，距离卡尔-奔驰先生发明的第一辆现代汽车，已经快100年了。我们要承认起步晚就会差距明显，这就像即使是天才如爱因斯坦，他3岁的智商也无法和一个高中学渣相比。
The whole country finally started driving private cars in the 80s, but that is 100 years from when the first Bench is invented. Therefore, we must admit that we are really behind in the car industry. Even it Einstein, we can't compare his knowledge to high school kids when he is only three years old.
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从80年代到现在40年间，中国汽车工业一直试图追赶强国。
Since then for the next 40 years, the Chinese car industry has been working hard investigating to catch up with other large car production countries.
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现在，虽然我们拥有了自己的品牌，有了独立组装汽车的能力，也掌握了发动机和变速箱的研发和制造技术，但和德美日比，还是差距不小，都是起步太晚的错！
Now that we have our own brand and factories. We can make our own cars and own technology. But comparing to Germany, America, and Japan, we are still quite behind. This is all due to the fact that we begin too late!
如果赛道不变，根本没法超车。
There is no way to overtake without changing the track.
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这时，神转折来了！从汽油车向新能源车的技术转型，为中国提供了一次百年一遇的追赶机会。在利用技术切换的窗口期实现弯道超车方面，我们中国一向牛掰。高速铁路和互联网就是最好的例子。
At this time, an exciting turn in this situation came! The technological transformation from gasoline vehicles to new energy vehicles has given China a chance to catch up once every 100 years. In the window phase of technology switching, we have always been good at overtaking in corners. What we did on high-speed rail and the Internet are the best examples to prove it.
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无论是中国在普通铁路向高铁转化的窗口，还是在PC互联网向移动互联网切换的窗口，我们都以庞大的市场规模为杠杆，撬动了相关产业链的爆发，完美实现弯道超车。
Whether it is China's window phase for conversion from the ordinary railway to high-speed rail, or switching from PC Internet to mobile Internet, we have leveraged the considerable market size to leverage the outbreak of the relevant industrial chain and perfectly achieve overtaking in corners.
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对于汽车行业来说，中国还想这么玩一把。靠切换赛道、扶持整车品牌，谋划一个与移动互联网产业相似的奇迹。
For the automotive industry, China wants to do this again. By switching tracks and supporting vehicle brands. They planned a miracle similar to the mobile Internet industry.
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这也把我们带进了我想分享的第三点。
That also brings us to the third point I want to share with you.
为什么政府要把重心放在电动汽车上，而不是别的新能源车技术呢？
Why should the government focus on electric vehicles instead of other new energy vehicle technologies?? ? ? ?
由于利益考量不同，在很多事情上，中、美、欧洲都很难达成共识。但在电动车这个问题上，各方立场却神同步：大家都想发展电动车。
Due to different interest considerations, it is difficult for China, the United States, and Europe to reach consensus on many issues. On the topic of electric vehicles, all parties' positions are synchronized: everyone wants to develop electric vehicles.
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中国从2010年起, 就大力推电动汽车了，给出过单辆车近10万元的补贴，北上广还打出了绿牌扶持这张王炸。
Since 2010, China has vigorously promoted electric vehicles and has given a subsidy about 100,000 RMB per vehicle. Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou also issued green plates to support this Joker Bomb.
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在欧洲，白左国挪威和丹麦已宣布在2025年禁售所有的传统燃油车。美国比较前卫的加州也很拼，准备在2030年做到这一点。
In Europe, the white-left countries Norway and Denmark, have announced that they banned the sale of all traditional fuel vehicles in 2025. California, which is a more modern state in the United States, is also preparing to do that in 2030.
明明新能源车还有混动车啥的呀，为什么唯独纯电车最受政府青睐呢？
Why are pure electric vehicles most popular with the government rather than hybrid vehicles included in new energy vehicles?
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背后其实有两大原因。
There are two main reasons behind it.
第一个原因：从能源的角度看，是因为很多国家都缺油不缺电。
First, from the energy perspective, many countries lack oil but not electricity.
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比如我们中国就拥有规模庞大的煤炭，可以通过火电厂转化为电能。另外，中国的水电、风电、和核电量也是全球Number 1。
For example, China has huge reserves of coal, which can be converted into electrical energy through thermal power stations. In addition, China's hydropower, wind and nuclear power production is the global top one respectively.
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多电少油的现状，不难让政府想到对需求端进行改革，以适应我国供应端的优势。需求端到底有什么东西，可以大幅减少对石油的消费，增加电能的消费呢？很明显，最佳答案不在混动车，而在电动车。
The current situation of more electricity and inadequate oil makes the government turn to the reform on the demand side to match advantages of our supply side. Is there anything on the demand side that can greatly reduce the consumption of oil and increase the consumption of electricity? Obviously, the best answer is not the hybrid car but the electric car.
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另外，中、美、德国支持纯电车，还有另一个不可言说的原因——日本车企。
There is another underlying reason why China, the US and Germany promote the development of pure electric vehicles —— Japanese car companies.
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混动车被不少人认为是燃油车向纯电车转变的一个过渡技术。丰田早在1997年就开始对这个技术进行商业化了。这些年的技术积累，让日本车企有非常成熟的混动技术，而且价格美丽。2019年在中国新推出的丰田雷凌，混动版只比燃油版贵1.1万元，难怪越来越多人会买这种低油耗产品。
The hybrid car is considered by many people as a transitional technology from fuel cars to pure electric cars. Toyota started commercializing this technology as early as 1997. The accumulation of technology over the years contributes to mature hybrid technology and attractive prices for Japanese car companies. The hybrid version of the new Toyota Levin, launched in China in 2019, costs only 11,000 yuan more than the fuel version. No wonder why more and more people are willing to buy this kind of low-fuel-consumption product.
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战略竞争中，凡是敌方支持的，我们就要反对。?
In strategic competition, we must oppose everything proposed by the enemy.
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对于汽车行业这种投资量大、产业链长的行业来说，更是如此。因为一步领先，就容易步步领先。
This is especially true to the automotive industry, which requires large investment and has a long industrial chain. Because one step ahead, every subsequent step is easier to lead.
日本在混动技术深耕了20多年，相关专利几乎都被它垄断了。所以大部分中、美、德国车企，都非常机智地跳过了日本人的优势区，直接瞄准纯电动市场。这个想法让三方一拍即合，共同开辟电动市场，孤立日本技术，让日本队酸出一树柠檬。
Japan's car company has been working on hybrid technology deeply for more than 20 years, and related patents are almost monopolized by them. Therefore, most Chinese, American and German car companies have wisely keep away from the hybrid vehicles market where Japanese have advantages in and directly aimed at the pure electric vehicles market. The three parties collaborate on this idea immediately, jointly open up the electric market, isolate the Japanese hybrid technology and make Japanese team jealous.
最后来做个总结，电动汽车槽点多多，为什么政府还要扶持？
Finally, let's make a summary of why is the Chinese government still supporting the development of electric vehicles despite all the complaints about the products.?
一是因为中国需要降低对石油的依赖，转移经济风险；
First, China needs to reduce its dependence on petroleum to shift economic risks;
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二是汽车产业对国家非常重要，电动汽车是实现弯道超车的好机会；
Second, the automobile industry is very important to the country, and the electric vehicle represents an excellent opportunity for China to overtake other countries;
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另外，中国多电少油的能源现状，也让电动汽车成为重点扶持对象。
In addition, China's status quo of more electricity and less petroleum forces the government to view electric vehicles as one of the key targets for?support.
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虽然我很爱电动车，但不能否认，电动车它就是个新物种，性能方面的亮点突出，但续航和稳定性仍然和燃油车没法比，因此综合产品力也有限。政府的扶持，能让电动车从0到1快速发展起来，但一旦政策断奶，电动汽车还能活下来吗？
Although I love electric cars very much, I can’t deny that the battery life and stability of electric cars are still incomparable with fuel cars despite their outstanding performance highlights. As such, the overall product attractiveness of EVs is limited. It’s true that the government's support promotes the rapid development of electric vehicles from 0 to 1, but once the policy is weaned, can they actually survive?
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未来真正影响汽车行业的杀手技术，一定是自动驾驶。无论是特斯拉、蔚来这些汽车新势力，还是谷歌、百度这种互联网巨头、亦或是通用丰田等传统车企，都盯上了自动驾驶，在这个领域疯狂砸钱研发。
In the future, the key technology that will really affect the automotive industry will be autonomous driving. Plenty of foresighted companies are all making huge investments in the research and development of this technology. These companies include new automobile forces such as Tesla and Nio, Internet giants like Google and Baidu, and traditional automobile giants like GM and Toyota.
对于电动车来说，掌握“三电”技术只是预选赛，自动驾驶才是真正的战场。你们想听我聊聊自动驾驶吗？
For electric vehicles, mastering the "three electrics" technology is only a prerequisite, and the autonomous?driving will?be the real battlefield. Are you interested to hear more about it? Don't forget to click the like button and subscribe to the channel.
我是Emma, 为你深扒科技背后的十万个为什么。我们下回再见。
I’m Emma, I will dig deep into the?"why" of the tech world for you. See you next time.
往期回顾